Jumat, 21 Desember 2012

Guesstimates on December 21, 2012



March S&P E-mini Futures: Last night the market got a push off the fiscal cliff, dropping as low as 1391.25. A close today below 1404 would have bearish implications. In the mean time I am estimating a day session range of 1408-1425.
QQQ:  Upside target is 70 then 74.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at 1.2670.
Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is an upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the dollar-yen is now headed for 85-86.
February Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.
February Gold:  The market closed bloe 1655 support yesterday. The implication is that it is headed back down to its trading range low at 1520.
March Silver: Silver closed below 30.50 support yesterday. The implication is that it is headed back to 26.00.
Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.
Apple:  Contrary to my expectation AAPL broke a little below its 505 reaction low. I still think the market won't even spend a full session below that level but if  it does support is at 480.

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