Attention Traders

Since my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime started in September of 2010 the blog's day trading account is up 93% based on one contract trades in the e-mini S&P futures in a $10,000 account. 

Want to find out how I calculate my range estimates every day? Would you like to learn the rules I use to identify the market's trend and estimate support and resistance levels? Or how I identify trend direction by identifying rejections of support or resistance, highs or lows? You can do all this plus watch my real time trades for less than $25 per month! Check out my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime. 

So far I have made more than 2700 posts and answered more than 6000 questions about my methods and ideas. Every day I explain exactly how I make the range estimate for that day and where I think the ES is going over several different time frames and - most importantly - why and how I draw my conclusions

Traders' Testimonials 

(just the last seven  - for more follow this link)

Curt said .....

I just want to thank you for your service. Your work is the foundation of my trading technique. I am not sure what I would do without you. I suppose I should study all your information so I may be able to survive if you ever stop. Please please don’t stop for at least two years, by then, I should be safe.

AP said ...

Just wanted to thank you for sharing with us your very methodical and systematic approach to market.

I have given up every prior technique I used to use to analyze markets before joining your seminar. Now I just use the principles you teach here … such as repetition rallies/breaks, rejecting lows or highs of ranges and numerous others that you share day-in and day-out.

I have started keeping a diary of such wisdoms you share and it has helped me trade not one but multiple securities profitably.

So again, Thank you.

dover said...

Carl, I wish that everything I bought equaled the value of your Real Time E-mini Trading Seminar and Blog.

moar said...
Been subscribing for half a year and have a much better grasp on the market now and can “control” my trading in a whole new way. I really value this seminar. So, thank you Carl, i wish you all the best!

average said ...
Thank you. Your blog is the best investment I’ve made.

adam said...

carl – congratulations on a terrific year. the blog offers wonderful insight, and
personally i find that the more i follow you, the more i can think on my own
within your basic parameters and frame of reference. This truly is the
greatest gift or a achievement a teacher can have, so please gain satisfaction
in knowing that you are contributing greatly to the body of knowledge and
method in your blogosphere.

flag said...

Your Real Time is the Real Deal…….. The Best financial site and most visited of all my favorites.  Informative, actionable, reasoned, consistant and unique.
 

Here is what other traders, both amateur and professional, say about CarlFutiaRealTime

Guesstimates on March 14, 2013

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1550-1560. The ES has reached the 1546-1587 long term resistance zone. I think a drop of 10% or more is likely to start within a few weeks.  

QQQ:  The Q's are headed for 73.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro is headed for 1.2700. Longer term upside target remains 1.40.

Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has further to go, first to 96 and then probably to 100-01.

April Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.

April Gold:  Support is in the 1530-50 zone lows of this trading range

May Silver: Support is at 26.00.

Google: Now headed for 950.

Apple:  Longer term downside target is 350 and near term support is 390. Meantime resistance above the market is at 480.

dollar, yen, and euro

Here are two monthly bar charts showing the euro (top chart) and the yen (bottom) chart, both priced in dollars.

The basic economic forces driving the relative prices of currencies these days are central banks monetary polices. The Bank of Japan is now under great political pressure to move from a deflationary policy to a slightly inflationary one and in the process move Japan's annual  rate of growth in nominal gross domestic product back to a more normal 5% level. The crash in the yen visible in the chart reflects investors' expectation that Japan's central bank will pursue this policy vigorously. I might add that the big rally in the Japanese stock market which has accompanied the crash in the yen is driven by the same force.

The Fed is also pursuing a QE program and I think will continue to do so well after the point where unemployment has dropped below 6.5%. But the Fed has been ahead of the QE curve for some time while Japan is just now starting to catch up - hence the drop of the yen against the dollar.

The European central bank is another story entirely. The ECB seems determined to sit on its hands while governments implement various degrees of austerity. This is a recipe for economic disaster in Europe. It will drive the euro higher against the dollar and thus contribute to Europe's economic malaise by making European goods and services more expensive relative to those produced by the US and Japan.

On the top chart I have illustrated my target for the euro which I think will be reached in a matter of months. The 1.40 level is the midpoint (purple line) of the current 1.19-1.60 trading range and by the time the market rallies to that level it will also encounter the declining trend line I have drawn through the tops established over the past few years. This 1.40 upside target may prove conservative if the ECB continues to pursue its current suicidal monetary policy. In that case the euro will probably move up into the 1.50-1.60 range.

The yen is getting very close to an obvious long term support level. The 100 level is the midpoint of the 1999-2011 bull market in the yen. In 2000 and again in 2005 there were tops in the 98-100 range which now should be support. So I think that the yen will drop into the 98-100 range and then rally substantially, maybe all the way to 108. But after that rally I would expect the current bear market to resume. Long term target is the 1999 low.

Guesstimates on March 13, 2013

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1547-57. The ES has reached the lower edge of its 1546-1587 long term resistance zone. I think a drop of 10% or more is likely to start within a few weeks.  

QQQ:  The Q's are headed for 73.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro is headed for 1.2700. Longer term upside target remains 1.40.

Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has further to go, first to 96 and then probably to 100-01.

April Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.

April Gold:  Support is in the 1530-50 zone lows of this trading range

May Silver: Support is at 26.00.

Google: Now headed for 950.

Apple:  Longer term downside target is 350 and near term support is 390. Meantime resistance above the market is at 480.

Guesstimates on March 12, 2013

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1548-58. The ES has reached the lower edge of its 1546-1587 long term resistance zone. I think a drop of 10% or more is likely to start within a few weeks.  

QQQ:  The Q's are headed for 73.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro is headed for 1.2700. Longer term upside target remains 1.40.

Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has further to go, first to 96 and then probably to 100-01.

April Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.

April Gold:  Support is in the 1530-50 zone lows of this trading range

May Silver: Support is at 26.00.

Google: Now headed for 950.

Apple:  Longer term downside target is 350 and near term support is 390. Meantime resistance above the market is at 480.