Guesstimates on November 30, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1414-1428. A move to 1468 and higher is underway.

QQQ:  Upside target is 70 then 74..

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  I now estimate support is at 1.2630. Any significant break of that level would cast serious doubt on my up-to-1.40 scenario.

Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is an upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the yen is now headed for 85-86.  

January Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – February Gold:   Gold has rallied past and closed well above the midpoint of the recent $130 drop so I conclude that the trend is back up. This means that the market is headed for 2000 and higher.

SLV - March Silver: Silver has been even stronger than gold and has closed above the midpoint of its recent drop. I think silver is now headed for $40.  

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  APPL has moved above 575-80 resistance. New bull market highs above 705 lie ahead. Meantime support is at 545.

Guesstimates on November 29, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1407-1422. It is starting to look like the market will be trading for most of a session above 1404 and will close above that level.  This would imply that a move to 1468 and higher is underway.

QQQ:  If the S&P direction turns up then I will be looking for a move to 70 and higher in the Q's.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  I now estimate support is at 1.2630. Any significant break of that level would cast serious doubt on my up-to-1.40 scenario.

Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is an upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the yen is now headed for 85-86.  

January Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – December Gold:   Gold has rallied past and closed well above the midpoint of the recent $130 drop so I conclude that the trend is back up. This means that the market is headed for 2000 and higher.

SLV - December Silver: Silver has been even stronger than gold and has closed above the midpoint of its recent drop. I think silver is now headed for $40.  

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  APPL has moved above 575-80 resistance. This reinforces my suspicion that the 505 low will hold and that AAPL is headed above 705.  Support now is at 545.

critical juncture

Here is a daily bar chart of the cash S&P for the past 12 months.

I think the market is at a critical juncture. The drop into the November 16 low was shorter than the drop into the June 2012 low (blue dash rectangles). This is potentially a sign of strength if the S&P can show some definite sign that the drop from the September high is over.

As you can see the average has rallied to the midpoint of the drop (red dash line) and has been hesitating there for the past several days. If the S&P can make new highs for the rally from the November 16 low and stays above the midpoint for a day I will conclude that this average is headed higher and will probably make new bull market highs.

For you Lindsay fans strength above the midpoint would probably mean that the November low was point 26 of the domed house and the current rally will end at point 27. There have been several instances of three peaks and a domed house formation in which point 27 was the bull market high, not point 23.

Guesstimates on November 28, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1385-97. I am sticking with my 1310-20 downside target unless and until the ES spends most of a day trading above 1404, the midpoint of the September-November drop, and closes above that level.

QQQ:  Downside target is 61.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  I now estimate support is at 1.2630. Any significant break of that level would cast serious doubt on my up-to-1.40 scenario.

Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is an upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the yen is now headed for 85-86.  

January Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – December Gold:   Gold has rallied past and closed well above the midpoint of the recent $130 drop so I conclude that the trend is back up. This means that the market is headed for 2000 and higher.

SLV - December Silver: Silver has been even stronger than gold and has closed above the midpoint of its recent drop. I think silver is now headed for $40.  

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  APPL has moved above 575-80 resistance. This reinforces my suspicion that the 505 low will hold and that AAPL is headed above 705.  Support now is at 545.

Guesstimates on November 27, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1390-1404. I am sticking with my 1310-20 downside target unless and until the ES spends most of a day trading above 1404, the midpoint of the September-November drop, and closes above that level.

QQQ:  Downside target is 61.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  I now estimate support is at 1.2630. Any significant break of that level would cast serious doubt on my up-to-1.40 scenario.

Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is an upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the yen is now headed for 85-86.  

January Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – December Gold:   Gold has rallied past and closed well above the midpoint of the recent $130 drop so I conclude that the trend is back up. This means that the market is headed for 2000 and higher.

SLV - December Silver: Silver has been even stronger than gold and has closed above the midpoint of its recent drop. I think silver is now headed for $40.  

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  APPL moved above 575-80 resistance yesterday. This reinforces my suspicion that the 505 low will hold and that AAPL is headed above 705.  Support now is at 545.

Guesstimates on November 26, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1389-1403. I am sticking with my 1310-20 downside target unless and until the ES spends most of a day trading above 1404, the midpoint of the September-November drop, and closes above that level.

QQQ:  Downside target is 61.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  I now estimate support is at 1.2630. Any significant break of that level would cast serious doubt on my up-to-1.40 scenario.

Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is an upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the yen is now headed for 85-86.  

January Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – December Gold:   Gold has rallied past and closed well above the midpoint of the recent $130 drop so I conclude that the trend is back up. This means that the market is headed for 2000 and higher.

SLV - December Silver: Silver has been even stronger than gold and has closed above the midpoint of its recent drop. I think silver is now headed for $40.  

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  APPL should encounter resistance is the 575-80 zone and then begin another down leg. It would not surprise me to see this down leg stop above the 505 low even as the market averages move below their corresponding low points. Strength above 575-80 would mean that AAPL is headed above 700.