Guesstimates on December 21, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Last night the market got a push off the fiscal cliff, dropping as low as 1391.25. A close today below 1404 would have bearish implications. In the mean time I am estimating a day session range of 1408-1425.

QQQ:  Upside target is 70 then 74.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at 1.2670.

Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is an upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the dollar-yen is now headed for 85-86.

February Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

February Gold:  The market closed bloe 1655 support yesterday. The implication is that it is headed back down to its trading range low at 1520.

March Silver: Silver closed below 30.50 support yesterday. The implication is that it is headed back to 26.00.

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.

Apple:  Contrary to my expectation AAPL broke a little below its 505 reaction low. I still think the market won't even spend a full session below that level but if  it does support is at 480.

Guesstimates on December20, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1419-1435. A move to 1468 and higher is underway.

QQQ:  Upside target is 70 then 74.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at 1.2670.

Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is an upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the dollar-yen is now headed for 85-86.

February Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

February Gold:  The market is headed for 2000 and higher. meatime support is at 1655.

March Silver: I think silver is headed for $40.  Support is at 30.50.

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.

Apple:  Contrary to my expectation AAPL broke a little below its 505 reaction low. I still think the market won't even spend a full session below that level but if  it does support is at 480.

Update

Here is a daily chart of the Dow industrials going back to the beginning of 2011.

I have been watching this average and the S&P 500 average as they have climbed up from their Novmeber lows. My view has been that any down turn from a top below the September 2012 tops would have very bearish implications.

So far the Dow (and the S&P) are maintaining a good pace for their rallies although volume has been relatively low, not unusual for end of the year markets. In particular, the Dow has moved decisively above its declining 50 day moving average (wavy green line) and has retraced more than half of its September-November drop. The only think which would worry be now would be a renewed decline which takes the average below the midpoint of the current rally (blue dash line).

In the meantime I am expecting the market to make new bull market highs above the September top. The 2007 top was 14,279 and if the current rally matches the size of the June-September rally it will bring the average close to that high.

I still think George Lindsay's three peaks and a domed house is operating here. If so the current rally will end in point 27 which probably will be a new high for the  bull market which started in 2009. The prognosis then is for a drop at least below the June 2012 low and possibly to the October 2011 low.

One interesting development is that the current rally may well turn out to be the third peak in a new, 3 peaks and a domed house formation. This opens up some new possibilities from a Lindsay point of view. I'll have more to say about this is future posts.

Guesstimates on December19, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1439-1452. A move to 1468 and higher is underway.

QQQ:  Upside target is 70 then 74.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at 1.2670.

Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is an upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the dollar-yen is now headed for 85-86. 

January Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – February Gold:  The market is headed for 2000 and higher. meatime support is at 1655.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for $40.  Support is at 30.50.

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  Contrary to my expectation AAPL yesterday broke a little below its 505 reaction low. I still think the market won't even spend a full session below that level but if  it does support is at 480.

Guesstimates on December18, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate in the March contract is 1427-1440. A move to 1468 and higher is underway.

QQQ:  Upside target is 70 then 74.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at 1.2670.

Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is an upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the dollar-yen is now headed for 85-86. 

January Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – February Gold:  The market is headed for 2000 and higher.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for $40.  

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  Contrary to my expectation AAPL yesterday broke a little below its 505 reaction low. I still think the market won't even spend a full session below that level but if  it does support is at 480.

Guesstimates on December 17, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate in the March contract is 1413-1423. A move to 1468 and higher is underway.

QQQ:  Upside target is 70 then 74.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at 1.2670.

Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is an upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the dollar-yen is now headed for 85-86. 

January Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – February Gold:  The market is headed for 2000 and higher.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for $40.  

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  Contrary to my expectation AAPL has dropped all the way back to its 505 reaction low. I still think the market won't even spend a full session below that level but if  it does support is at 480.