Guesstimates on October 24, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1395-1416. The 1420-25 support zone has failed. This means that the market is probably headed for 1300 or so.

QQQ:  Downside target is 61.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350. Support is at 1.2750.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached.

December Crude: A close in New York today below 86 would convince me that the trend has turned back down and mean that the market is headed for 70 or below.

GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  Given the bearish trend in the general market it seems likely that support at 610 will be broken. If so the downside target will be 560.

Guesstimates on October 23, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1401-1420. Heavy selling in Europe makes me think that the 1420-25 support zone has failed. This in turn means that the market is probably headed for 1300 or so.

QQQ:  Downside target is 61.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350. Support is at 1.2750.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached.

December Crude: A close in New York today below 86 would convince me that the trend has turned back down and mean that the market is headed for 70 or below.

GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.

Google: Google broke support at 700 yesterday on the earnings news. There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  I don't think this break will carry any lower than 610.

Guesstimates on October 22, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1416-1432. Friday's break was a high volume, wide range drop after a low volume, relatively narrow range rally. This is a warning that support in the 1420-25 range is likely to fail. If it does the prognosis will be for a drop which at least matches the size of the 157 point March-June drop earlier this year.

QQQ:  The QQQ is in a danger zone and I will key off the action of the S&P to determine if the up trend has been reversed.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350. Support is at 1.2750.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached.

December Crude: The market is now is on its way to the 110-115 zone. Support is at 90-91.

GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.

Google: Google broke support at 700 yesterday on the earnings news. There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  I don't think this break will carry any lower than 610.

Guesstimates on October 19, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1440-1451. The market is on its way up to 1480-90. But the ES is in a danger zone. Should support in the 1420-25 range fail a substantial decline will  begin.

QQQ:  The QQQ is in a danger zone and I will key off the action of the S&P to determine if the up trend has been reversed.  

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350. Support is at 1.2750.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached.

November Crude: The market is now is on its way to the 110-115 zone. Support is at 90-91.

GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.

Google: Google broke support at 700 yesterday on the earnings news. There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  Apple broke below 645 support but I don't think this break will carry any lower than 610.

point 25 ???

The top chart is a daily chart of the Dow industrials and the bottom chart is a daily chart of the QQQ's, the ETF which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index.

In this post last week I suggested that the Dow was rallying to point 25 of its domed house. The top of a domed house usually looks like a lopsided head and shoulders top and that so far is a good description of the Dow's  price pattern over the past month. Currently this average is not far from its bull market top which was made on October 5. The October 5 top hypothetically was point 23 of the domed house and a potential bull market top. The market may well now be establishing its point 25.

In addition to the bearish hints I cited last week let me point out that the speculative sector of the market as represented by the QQQ and by the Nasdaq composite index (whose chart looks pretty much the same as the QQQ chart) is now also behaving bearishly. While the Dow and the S&P 500 have recovered almost all of their drop from the September 14 and October 5 tops the QQQ is lagging badly. In fact the latter average has already slipped below its 50 day moving average which seems to be rounding over and about to turn down.

This situation would lend bearish emphasis to any drop in the Dow and S&P which takes those averages below their October 12 low points. Such a drop would probably be the start of something much bigger. If this really is a domed house the minimum downside target would be the June 2012 lows while the standard target would be the October 2011 lows.

Guesstimates on October 18, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1449-1459. The market is on its way up to 1480-90. But the ES is in a danger zone. Should support in the 1420-25 range fail a substantial decline will  begin.

QQQ:  The QQQ is in a danger zone and I will key off the action of the S&P to determine if the up trend has been reversed.  

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350. Support is at 1.2750.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached.

November Crude: The market is now is on its way to the 110-115 zone. Support is at 90-91.

GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.

Google: Google has reached.  Next upside target is 790. Support stands at 700.  

Apple:  Apple broke below 645 support but I don't think this break will carry any lower than 610.