Guesstimates on March 30, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1400-1413. I think the drop from 1419 is over and that the next development will be a rally to the May 2008 top at 1442.

QQQ: Next upside target is 69.10. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro is still straddling resistance at 1.3300. If it moves decisively above that level I think it will continue up to 1.3570 but right now the market has shown no preference for either side of that resistance level. In either case I think the Euro will soon head much lower. Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support is at 635.

Apple: Resistance is now at 632. and support at 590.

target 1440

Here is a weekly bar chart of the cash S&P 500 going back to the 2007 bull market top. The next obvious upside target for the S&P in this bull market is not far away at 1440. The red dash line is at the level of the May 2008 top which was 1442 and thus a resistance level above the market. If the rally from the October 2011 low matches the size of the July 2010-May 2011 rally it would end at 1438 (blue dash rectangles).

But what happens after 1440? I don't see any sign yet that the technical condition of the rally is weakening. The bull market's leading stocks, right now technology, housing, and bank stocks, are still pulling the averages up. Foreign stock markets are for the most part in obvious up trends. There are no divergences among these various sectors that I can see. And until such divergences begin to appear I think the longer term trend will remain up.

This means that the S&P 500 is likely to reach the level of its 2007 bull market top of 1576 during the next 12 months or so.

Guesstimates on March 29, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1389-1402. I think the drop from 1419 is nearly over and that the next development will be a rally to the May 2008 top at 1442.

QQQ: Next upside target is 69.10. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro is still straddling resistance at 1.3300. If it moves decisively above that level I think it will continue up to 1.3570 but right now the market has shown no preference for either side of that resistance level. In either case I think the Euro will soon head much lower.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support is at 635.

Apple: Resistance is now at 632. and support at 590.

Guesstimates on March 28, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1402-1413. The next level to watch is the May 2007 top at 1442. I expect the ES to reach that level in the next week or two.

QQQ: Next upside target is 69.10. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: So far the Euro has spent two days trading above 1.3300 resistance. A third day would convince me that the market is headed for 1.3570 before resuming its down trend. Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support is at 635.

Apple: Resistance is now at 632. and support at 590.

Guesstimates on March 27, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1407-1421. I think yesterday's rally represented a break above resistance. The next level to watch is the May 2007 top at 1442. I expect the ES to reach that level in the next week or two.

QQQ: Next upside target is 69.10. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: Yesterday the Euro spent most of its session trading above resistance at 1.3300. I think the market will soon move back down below there, but if I am wrong the next stop on the upside will be 1.3570.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support is at 635.

Apple: Resistance is at 605 and support at 575. The market's recent upside run was extreme and AAPL will now trade sideways for a while.

Guesstimates on March 26, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1395-1408. The rally from the March 6 low has reached resistance in the1405-15 range and I think it will remain in a 1375-1410 trading range for a while.

QQQ: Next upside target is 69.10. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend of the euro is now downward. Over the next few months I expect to see the market drop below 1.2600. Resistance above the market is at 1.3300

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Resistance is at 605 and support at 575. The market's recent upside run was extreme and AAPL will now trade sideways for a while.

Guesstimates on March 23, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1385-1394. The rally from the March 6 low has reached resistance in the1405-15 range. I now expect a trading range with a low near 1375 to form. The advancing issues oscillators are showing some important divergences so a drop of at least 70 points is likely to begin within the next couple of weeks.

QQQ: Next upside target is 66.25 has been reached. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend of the euro is now downward. Over the next few months I expect to see the market drop below 1.2600. Right now support is at 129.50. Resistance above the market is at 1.3300

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Resistance is at 605 and support at 575. The market's recent upside run was extreme and AAPL will now trade sideways for a while.