Guesstimates on November 1, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1198-1228. I still think that the October 4 low will hold. If the market closes this Friday below 1216 I will reassess this view.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is now at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000. A New York close this Friday below 1.3800 would probably change my mind about this.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 94.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on October 31, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1260-1278. I think that the October 4 low will hold for the foreseeable future and the market is headed above its May 2011 top.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000. Support is at 1.3950

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 94.

GLD – December Gold: I now think gold is headed for 2100.

SLV - December Silver: I now think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on October 28, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1264-1289. I now think that the October 4 low will hold for the foreseeable future and the market is headed above its February 2011 top.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 94.

GLD – December Gold: I now think gold is headed for 2100.

SLV - December Silver: I now think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

update

I now believe that the move above the August 31 top is a genuine upside breakout. The implication is that this market is now going above the May 2 top which is at 1370 in cash.

sell the news

Here is a 10 point box, 1 box reversal point and figure chart of the December e-minis going back to the July high.

As you can see the market this week has broken above the top of a 10 week trading range. The question now is whether this portends a move to 1500 or whether instead it is a false breakout.

For the time being I am going with the false breakout scenario. The breakout has been accompanied by news of the temporary resolution of the European debt crisis, and in my experience it is better to sell bullish news than it is to buy it. I might also note that at this morning's high the cash S&P has just kissed its declining 200 day moving average. finally, as you can see on the chart, a point and figure count across the base area associated with the October 4 low shows a potential rally to 1280-90, not far from today's high in the ES so far of 1273.25.

If I am right about this action being a false, upside breakout then the e-minis will soon drop back below the top of this trading range which stands at 1230. This in turn would be the beginning of a move to 950 or so.

If instead the market starts to accept prices above 1230 as fair value over the next week or two I will have to reassess my longer term bearish scenario.

Guesstimates on October 27, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1249-1275. I think the next big move from here will be downward and will take the market below its October 4 low.

QQQ: Next big move from here will be downward.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is now at 1.4175. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 94.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance which I now think stands at 1710. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00. Resistance above the market is at 33.75

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is about to start. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on October 26, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market has reached the 1240-50 target zone. The next big move will be downward. Today's day session range estimate is 1224-1241.

QQQ: Next big move from here will be downward.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 1.3950. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 90.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance which I now think stands at 1710. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00. Resistance above the market is at 33.75

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is about to start. Support is at 345.