Guesstimates on October 3, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1100-1128. I think the ES is headed below its August low at 1071.

QQQ: Now headed below 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 1.3700. The euro is now headed for its next support level in the 1.30-1.31 range.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

November Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance at 1670. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00.

Google: I think much bigger drop than I expected is underway. Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on September 30, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1123-1153. I think the ES is headed below its August low.

QQQ: Now headed below 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 1.3700. The euro is now headed for its next support level in the 1.30-1.31 range.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

November Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance at 1670. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00.

Google: I think much bigger drop than I expected is underway. Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on September 29, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1138-1168. Yesterday's late weakness makes it likely that Tuesday's 1190 top will hold. I think the ES is now headed below its August low.

QQQ: Now headed below 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 1.3700. The euro is now headed for its next support level in the 1.30-1.31 range.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

November Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance at 1670. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00.

Google: I think much bigger drop than I expected is underway. Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.

quick update

The E-minis retraced more than half of the rally from the September 23 low at 1102 today. Worse, the daily range expanded on a down day. I now think that the rally from 1102 ended at a lower top yesterday at 1190. This is the second consecutive lower top, another bearish indication. The implication is that the market is headed below its August low which stands at 1071.50 in the December contract.

Guesstimates on September 28, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: The ES is headed for 1252. Today's day session range estimate is 1167-1195. Once the move to 1252 is complete I expect the drop to 950 to resume.

QQQ: Now headed below 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 1.3700. The euro is now headed for its next support level in the 1.30-1.31 range.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

November Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance at 1670. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00.

Google: I think much bigger drop than I expected is underway. Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.

up to 1252

The rally from last week's 1102 low started after the break below the August 22 low at 1105 in the December e-minis did not result in further selling. The fact that the market has rallied swiftly back above not only that low but above three intervening lows shows that it is rejecting prices below the 1130 level. The midpoint of the drop from the August 31 top at 1223.75 to last week's 1102 low is 1163 and the rally has taken out this resistance level also.

These considerations all point to an ongoing rally which will probably equal the length of the August rally which was 152 points (blue dash rectangles). This suggests an upside target 1254 for the move up from 1102.

I have outlined with purple dash lines the structure of what I think is a corrective wave in Elliott terms which began from the August 9 low. The August rally and the September drop both show a clear three wave structure. These two swings are probably the first two waves of three wave rally. The market is in the last wave of this rally and the last wave of a three wave rally is typically a fast one.

Despite the short term bullish implications I draw from the past couple of days activity I still think stock prices are in a bear market which will eventually carry the S&P down to 950. The only development which could alter the situation would be a dramatic shift in Federal Reserve policy to another round of quantitative easing. Failing this we should see the 950 level during the first quarter of 2012.

Guesstimates on September 27, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: It looks like midpoint resistance at 1163 has been broken decisively overnight. This means that the ES is headed for 1252. Today's day session range estimate is 1163-1193. Once the move to 1252 is complete I expect the drop to 950 to resume.

QQQ: Now headed below 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is now headed for its next support level in the 1.30-1.31 range.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

November Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance at 1670. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00.

Google: I think much bigger drop than I expected is underway. Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.