Guesstimates on September 1, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1205-1225. The ES has traded well into the 1220-40 target zone and is in the process of building a top. The next big move from current levels will be down to 1100 or lower.

QQQ: Support is 50.00 and upside target is now 58.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is near its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has traded sideways in a narrow range for several weeks and now is showing signs of dropping below this range. A New York close below 1.4050 would convince me that the market is headed for 1.35 and possibly lower. Meantime I will stick with my 1.53 upside target.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

September Crude: Resistance above the market is at 92 and the next step down should take it to 60. I think this is a bear market in crude which is likely to continue down into the 50-60 range.

GLD – December Gold: Gold is in the midst of a reaction within an ongoing bull market . Downside target is 1575. Resistance above the market is in the 1820-1840 zone.

SLV - September Silver: Support in silver is at 35.00. From there a move to 50.00 and higher should begin.

Google: I think much bigger drop than I expected is underway. Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.

a message for aggressive contrarians

Here is my latest post on "The Art of Contrarian Trading".

Guesstimates on August 31, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1207-1227. I think the market is headed for 1220-1240. Once this target zone is reached the bear market is likely to resume.

QQQ: Support is 50.00 and upside target is now 58.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is near its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think this market is now headed for 1.5300. Support remains at 142.00.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

September Crude: Crude has dropped as low as 75. Resistance above the market is now at 92 and the next step down should take it to 60. I think this is a bear market in crude which is likely to continue down into the 50-60 range.

GLD – December Gold: Gold is in the midst of a reaction within an ongoing bull market . Downside target is 1575. Resistance above the market is in the 1820-1840 zone.

SLV - September Silver: Support in silver is at 35.00. From there a move to 50.00 and higher should begin.

Google: I think much bigger drop than I expected is underway. Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on August 30, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1187-1207. Support is at 1180 and I think the market is headed for 1220-1240. Once this target zone is reached the bear market is likely to resume.

QQQ: Support is 50.00 and upside target is now 58.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is near its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think this market is now headed for 1.5300. Support remains at 142.00.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

September Crude: Crude has dropped as low as 75. Resistance above the market is now at 92 and the next step down should take it to 70. I think this is a bear market in crude which is likely to continue down into the 50-60 range.

GLD – December Gold: Gold is in the midst of a reaction within an ongoing bull market . Downside target is 1575. Resistance above the market is in the 1820-1840 zone.

SLV - September Silver: Support in silver is at 35.00. From there a move to 50.00 and higher should begin.

Google: I think much bigger drop than I expected is underway. Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on August 29, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1177-1202. The market is headed for 1210 and then for 1220-1240. Once the latter target zone is reached the bear market is likely to resume.

QQQ: Support is 50.00 and upside target is now 58.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is near its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think this market is now headed for 1.5300. Support remains at 142.00.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

September Crude: Crude has dropped as low as 75. Resistance above the market is now at 92 and the next step down should take it to 70. I think this is a bear market in crude which is likely to continue down into the 50-60 range.

GLD – December Gold: Gold is in the midst of a reaction within an ongoing bull market . Downside target is 1575. Resistance above the market is at 1820.

SLV - September Silver: Support in silver is at 35.00. From there a move to 50.00 and higher should begin.

Google: I think much bigger drop than I expected is underway. Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on August 26, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1145-1170. I expect support at 1150 to hold but if it doesn't the ES will drop to 1100 before resuming its move into the 1220-1240 range.

QQQ: Support is 50.00 and upside target is now 58.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is near its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think this market is now headed for 1.5300. Support remains at 142.00.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

September Crude: Crude has dropped as low as 75. Resistance above the market is now at 92 and the next step down should take it to 70. I think this is a bear market in crude which is likely to continue down into the 50-60 range.

GLD – December Gold: Gold never made it to the1960 target and now is in the midst of a reaction within an ongoing bull market . Downside target is 1575. Resistance above the market is at 1820.

SLV - September Silver: Support in silver is at 35.00. From there a move to 50.00 and higher should begin.

Google: I think much bigger drop than I expected is underway. Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.

up - then down

Here is a five point box, one box reversal chart of the last two weeks of e-mini trading.



You can see that the ES built a substantial base in the 1115-1150 range last week and early this week. The count target (solid green lines) from this base point to 1240. However, I think this is a bear market and in bear markets upside count targets are often not fulfilled. The midpoint of the drop from the May top to the August low is 1222 and this is perhaps a more realistic target for this rally.



The upside breakout from this base reached a temporary high this morning at 1188.50 on the news that Warren Buffett has taken a substantial position in Bank of America. The drop from there has been fast, but support should develop in the vicinity of the breakout level (red dash line) which is at 1153.25.



Once the rally into the 1220-40 range is over I expect the ES to resume its bear market decline.