Guesstimates on February 7, 2013

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1499-1511. It is likely that the ES will rally to 1546 during the next few weeks.

QQQ:  The Q's are now headed for 73.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB is pursuing a tighter monetary policy than the Fed and that  will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Support is at 1.3400.

Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has further to go, at least to 96 or so.

March Crude:  The September 2012 top is just above 100 and unless the market starts accepting prices above that level I will stick with my view that it is headed for 70 and lower. Resistance above the market is now at 101.

April Gold:  A repetition of the size of the last rally would put gold up to 1715. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned up.

March Silver: The last rally in silver was about 350 points. A similar rally now would put the market up to 33.30. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned upward.

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for a move up to 800 and higher.

Apple:  During the current rally in the averages AAPL has underperformed the market and GOOG. Longer term downside target is 350 and near term support is 435. Meantime resistance above the market is at 525.

Facebook

Here is a daily chart of Facebook (FB). Facebook had its IPO last May and reached a high of 45 on its first day of trading. Subsequently the stock dropped 60%, partly because of the looming supply of stock from insiders once the lock-up period ended.

FB made its low at 17.50 last September and since then has moved steadily higher. If you look closely on this chart you will see that the red arrow points to the position of the 175 day moving average - a short red streak just above the purple dash line. FB has not yet traded for 200 market sessions and until it does I will use the 175 day moving average as a substitute for the 200 day moving average.

You can see that the market has recently dropped to its rising 50 day moving average (wiggly green line) which is visibly above the 175 day moving average, a bullish configuration. The midpoint (purple line) of the rally from the 17.50 low is at 25, just below the position of the 175 day moving average. As long as FB shows no preference for trading below that level I think its longer term trend will remain upward.

The recent drop started from just above the midpoint of the drop from 45 to 17.50 (red dash line). The first obvious support point is just below the market at 27.25 and is where the current reaction would equal the size of the biggest reaction on the way up (blue rectangles).

A reasonable upside target for FB is its historical high at 45 (green oval). But if the market gets that high I doubt it will stop so I think a better guess would be the 50 -55 range for FB over the next year or so.

Guesstimates on February 6, 2013

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1490-1504. It is likely that the ES will rally to 1546 during the next few weeks.

QQQ:  The Q's are now headed for 73.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB is pursuing a tighter monetary policy than the Fed and that  will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Support is at 1.3400.

Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has further to go, at least to 96 or so.

March Crude:  Tthe September 2012 top is just above 100 and unless the market starts accepting prices above that level I will stick with my view that it is headed for 70 and lower. Resistance above the market is now at 101.

April Gold:  A repetition of the size of the last rally would put gold up to 1715. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned up.

March Silver: The last rally in silver was about 350 points. A similar rally now would put the market up to 33.30. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned upward.

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for a move up to 800 and higher.

Apple:  During the current rally in the averages AAPL has underperformed the market and GOOG. Longer term downside target is 350 and near term support is 435. Meantime resistance above the market is at 525.

Guesstimates on February 5, 2013

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1490-1502. It is likely that the ES will rally to 1546 during the next few weeks.

QQQ:  The Q's are now headed for 73.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB is pursuing a tighter monetary policy than the Fed and that  will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at 1.2670.

Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has further to go, at least to 96 or so.

March Crude:  Crude has rallied past 95 resistance. But the September 2012 top is just above 100 and unless the market starts accepting prices above that level I will stick with my view that it is headed for 70 and lower. Resistance above the market is now at 101.

April Gold:  A repetition of the size of the last rally would put gold up to 1715. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned up.

March Silver: The last rally in silver was about 350 points. A similar rally now would put the market up to 33.30. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned upward.

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for a move up to 800 and higher.

Apple:  During the current rally in the averages AAPL has underperformed the market and GOOG. Longer term downside target is 350 and near term support is 435. Meantime resistance above the market is at 525.

two new posts on the Art of Contrarian Trading

right here

Guesstimates on February 4, 2013

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1494-15040. It is likely that the ES will rally to 1546 during the next few weeks.

QQQ:  The Q's are now headed for 73.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB is pursuing a tighter monetary policy than the Fed and that  will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at 1.2670.

Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has further to go, at least to 96 or so.

March Crude:  Crude has rallied past 95 resistance. But the September 2012 top is just above 100 and unless the market starts accepting prices above that level I will stick with my view that it is headed for 70 and lower. Resistance above the market is now at 101.

February Gold:  A repetition of the size of the last rally would put gold up to 1715. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned up.

March Silver: The last rally in silver was about 350 points. A similar rally now would put the market up to 33.30. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned upward.

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for a move up to 800 and higher.

Apple:  During the current rally in the averages AAPL has underperformed the market and GOOG. Longer term downside target is 350 and near term support is 435. Meantime resistance above the market is at 525.

Guesstimates on February 1, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1498-1510. It is likely that the ES will rally to 1546 during the next few weeks.

QQQ:  The Q's are now headed for 73.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB is pursuing a tighter monetary policy than the Fed and that  will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at 1.2670.

Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has further to go, at least to 96 or so.

March Crude:  Crude has rallied past 95 resistance. But the September 2012 top is just above 100 and unless the market starts accepting prices above that level I will stick with my view that it is headed for 70 and lower. Resistance above the market is now at 101.

February Gold:  A repetition of the size of the last rally would put gold up to 1715. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned up.

March Silver: The last rally in silver was about 350 points. A similar rally now would put the market up to 33.30. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned upward.

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for a move up to 800 and higher.

Apple:  During the current rally in the averages AAPL has underperformed the market and GOOG. Longer term downside target is 350 and near term support is 435. Meantime resistance above the market is at 525.