Guesstimates on January 8, 2013

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1448-1460. The market turned up strongly on the partial resolution of fiscal cliff worries. I now see 1488 as a conservative and 1546 as an optimistic upside target.

QQQ:  The Q's are now headed for 73.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at 1.2670.

Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has a lot further to go, probably to 96 or so.

February Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower. Resistance above the market is at 95.

February Gold:  A repetition of the size of the last rally would put gold up to 1715. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned up.

March Silver: The last rally in silver was about 350 points. A similar rally now would put the market up to 33.30. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned upward.

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for a move up to 800 and higher.

Apple:  Contrary to my expectation AAPL broke a little below its 505 reaction low. I still think the market won't even spend a full session below that level but if  it does support is at 480.

Guesstimates on January 7, 2013

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1450-1462. The market has turned up strongly on the partial resolution of fiscal cliff worries. I now see 1488 as a conservative and 1546 as an optimistic upside target.

QQQ:  The Q's are now headed for 73.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at 1.2670.

Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has a lot further to go, probably to 96 or so.

February Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower. Resistance above the market is at 95.

February Gold:  A repetition of the size of the last rally would put gold up to 1715. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned up.

March Silver: The last rally in silver was about 350 points. A similar rally now would put the market up to 33.30. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned upward.

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for a move up to 800 and higher.

Apple:  Contrary to my expectation AAPL broke a little below its 505 reaction low. I still think the market won't even spend a full session below that level but if  it does support is at 480.

Guesstimates on January 4, 2013

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1446-1460. The market has turned up strongly on the partial resolution of fiscal cliff worries. I now see 1488 and a conservative and 1546 as an optimistic upside target.

QQQ:  The Q's are now headed for 73.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at 1.2670.

Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has a lot further to go, probably to 96 or so.

February Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower. Resistance above the market is at 95.

February Gold:  A repetition of the size of the last rally would put gold up to 1715. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned up.

March Silver: The last rally in silver was about 350 points. A similar rally now would put the market up to 33.30. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned upward.

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for a move up to 800 and higher.

Apple:  Contrary to my expectation AAPL broke a little below its 505 reaction low. I still think the market won't even spend a full session below that level but if  it does support is at 480.

Update

Here is a daily chart of the Dow Industrial Average going back to the start of 2011.

The weakness which followed the December 19 top made me think that this average had put in a lower top and would soon break below its November 2012 low. But fiscal cliff concerns were addressed just before the end of the year and the US stock market rallied strongly to a level above that December 19 top.

I don't think the market is out of the woods just yet because there remain a number of bearish divergences in the breadth of the market data you can find on my chart page. However the first two days of this rally from the December 28 low were very, very strong and the up trend which started then should last at least until mid-January when I would expect some sort of correction to set in.

Just looking at the chart and applying the principle that higher highs typically follow higher lows I can project two obvious upside targets for the Dow. A rally from the December 28 low which matches the size of the rally from the November 16, 2012 low would carry the Dow up about 900 points to roughly 13,800, a new high for the bull market which started in March 2009. A rally from the November 2012 low which matches the size of the June-September 2012 rally would carry the Dow to 14,100.

Those of you who are following the evolution of Lindsay's three peaks and a domed house pattern should know that I think the rally from the November 16 low will end at point 27 of the domed house and probably will be a new bull market high. If this is a correct interpretation then the subsequent drop will probably carry the Dow below its June 2012 low.

A drop below the June 2012 low would then set up an interesting situation. To my eye there would then be three obvious peaks : May 2012, September 2012, and the top of the current rally which has not yet been seen. If no more than 10 months separate the first from the third peak a drop below the June low would identify this sequence of tops as a valid three peaks which should then be followed by a domed house rally.

So if the current rally ends before March 1, 2013 and the subsequent break drops the Dow below the June 2012 low I would expect that break to be followed by a seven or eight month domed house rally to new bull market highs - above the highest of the three peaks. This would mean that a bull market top would then be likely towards the end of 2013 or the beginning of 2014. Such a top would line up quite well with Lindsay's 15 year period from important lows to important highs - in this case the 15 year period would start from the August-October 1998 low. It would also make the rally from the October 2011 lows equal in time to long basic advance.

Guesstimates on January 3, 2013

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1448-1462. The market has turned up strongly on the partial resolution of fiscal cliff worries. I now see 1488 and a conservative and 1546 as an optimistic upside target.

QQQ:  The Q's are now headed for 73.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at 1.2670.

Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has a lot further to go, probably to 96 or so.

February Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower. Resistance above the market is at 95.

February Gold:  A repetition of the size of the last rally would put gold up to 1715. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned up.

March Silver: The last rally in silver was about 350 points. A similar rally now would put the market up to 33.30. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned upward.

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for a move up to 800 and higher.

Apple:  Contrary to my expectation AAPL broke a little below its 505 reaction low. I still think the market won't even spend a full session below that level but if  it does support is at 480.

2013 daily guesstimates

MARCH

March 14 - 8:30 am ET
March 13 - 8:30 am ET
March 12 - 8:30 am ET
March 11 - 8:30 am ET

March 8 - 8:30 am ET
March 7 - 8:30 am ET
March 6 - 8:30 am ET
March 5 - 8:30 am ET
March 4 - 8:30 am ET

 March 1 - 8:30 am ET

FEBRUARY

February 28 - 8:30 am ET
February 27 - 8:30 am ET
February 26 - 8:30 am ET
February 25 - 8:30 am ET

February 22 - 8:30 am ET
February 21 - 8:30 am ET
February 20 - 8:30 am ET
February 19 - 8:30 am ET

February 15 - 8:30 am ET
February 14 - 8:30 am ET
February 13 - 8:30 am ET
February 12 - 8:30 am ET
February 11 - 8:30 am ET

February 8 - 8:30 am ET
February 7 - 8:30 am ET 
February 6 - 8:30 am ET
February 5 - 8:30 am ET
February 4 - 8:30 am ET

February 1 - 8:30 am ET

JANUARY

January 31 - 8:30 am ET
January 30 - 8:30 am ET
January 29 - 8:30 am ET
January 28 - 8:30 am ET

January 25 - 8:30 am ET
January 24 - 8:30 am ET
January 23 - 8:30 am ET
January 22 - 8:30 am ET

January 18 - 8:30 am ET
January 17 - 8:30 am ET
January 16 - 8:30 am ET
January 15 - 8:30 am ET
January 14 - 8:30 am ET

January 11 - 8:30 am ET
January 10 - 8:30 am ET
January 9 - 8:30 am ET
January 8 - 8:30 am ET
January 7 - 8:30 am ET

January 4 - 8:30 am ET 
January 3 - 8:30 am ET
January 2 - 8:30 am ET

Guesstimates on January 2, 2013.

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1440-1456. The market has turned up strongly on the partial resolution of fiscal cliff worries. I now see 1488 and a conservative and 1546 as an optimistic upside target.

QQQ:  The Q's are now headed for 73.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at 1.2670.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has reached the lower edge of our initial 85-86 upside target zone. I think this bull market has a lot further to go, probably to 96 or so.

February Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower. Resistance above the market is at 95.

February Gold:  A repetition of the size of the last rally would put Gold up to 1715. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned up.

March Silver: The last rally in silver was about 350 points. A similar rally now would put the market up to 33.30. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned upward.

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for a move up to 800 and higher.

Apple:  Contrary to my expectation AAPL broke a little below its 505 reaction low. I still think the market won't even spend a full session below that level but if  it does support is at 480.