Guesstimates on December 7, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1416-1430. A move to 1468 and higher is underway.

QQQ:  Upside target is 70 then 74.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at 1.2670.

Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is an upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the yen is now headed for 85-86.  

January Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – February Gold:  The market is headed for 2000 and higher.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for $40.  

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  I expected  this break to end above the 505 low, probably near 525.  The fast rally from yesterday's 519  low makes it likely that the break is over and that AAPL is now headed above 600.

Guesstimates on December 6, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1404-1414. A move to 1468 and higher is underway.

QQQ:  Upside target is 70 then 74.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35.

Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is an upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the yen is now headed for 85-86.  

January Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – February Gold:  The market is headed for 2000 and higher.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for $40.  

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  APPL has broken below 545 support but I expect this break to end above the 505 low, probably near 525.

a critical juncture

 Here are daily bar charts of the Dow and the S&P 500 going back to the 2011 tops.

As you know I turned bullish on the averages when the S&P showed strength above the midpoint of its drop from the September 2012 top. Since that time the advance-decline line has rallied almost all the way back to that September top while the big European stock markets have actually been showing more strength than the US.

Another bullish factor is the constant stream of news and commentary about the US "fiscal cliff" negotiations. I think what's happening here is akin to a magician's "sleight of hand". All the bearish talk about the fiscal cliff is background to a market rally. When some sort or agreement is reached a top will probably be near to hand.

Despite my current bullish stance I am watching for one potential bearish development very carefully. Notice that both market averages have rallied to declining 50 day moving averages after breaking below their 200 day moving averages at the November lows. And this after a bull market which lasted 42 months, longer than average. If the averages roll over from here without first going much above their 50 day moving averages I will abandon my current bullish views and start looking for a drop below the November lows. This in turn would be definite evidence that a bear market is underway.

A number of Lindsay fans have asked me whether I think the current rally is establishing point 27 of George Lindsay's domed house formation. Frankly, I don't think it matters much because there are examples of points 27 which are the actual bull market top, above the high at point 23. The thing to remember is that the next extended break, whether it begins from  below the September 2012 top or from above it is likely to drop the market below the November 2012 low point.

Guesstimates on December 5, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1406-1419. A move to 1468 and higher is underway.

QQQ:  Upside target is 70 then 74.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35.

Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is an upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the yen is now headed for 85-86.  

January Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – February Gold:  The market is headed for 2000 and higher.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for $40.  

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  APPL has moved above 575-80 resistance. New bull market highs above 705 lie ahead. Meantime support is at 545.

Guessstimates on December4, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1395-1409. A move to 1468 and higher is underway.

QQQ:  Upside target is 70 then 74.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35.

Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is an upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the yen is now headed for 85-86.  

January Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – February Gold:  The market is headed for 2000 and higher.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for $40.  

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  APPL has moved above 575-80 resistance. New bull market highs above 705 lie ahead. Meantime support is at 545.

Guesstimates on December 3, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1416-1430. A move to 1468 and higher is underway.

QQQ:  Upside target is 70 then 74.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35.

Dollar-Yen: The move in the dollar-yen above 81.00 is an upside breakout from a trading range which has developed during the past three months. I think it means that the yen is now headed for 85-86.  

January Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – February Gold:   Gold has rallied past and closed well above the midpoint of the recent $130 drop so I conclude that the trend is back up. This means that the market is headed for 2000 and higher.

SLV - March Silver: Silver has been even stronger than gold and has closed above the midpoint of its recent drop. I think silver is now headed for $40.  

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  APPL has moved above 575-80 resistance. New bull market highs above 705 lie ahead. Meantime support is at 545.