Guesstimates on November 7, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1410-1425. The ES has been stronger than I had expected but still has been unable to climb above 1420 and stay there. For the time being I am sticking with my1310-20 downside target.

QQQ:  Downside target is 61.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350. Support is at 1.2750 and has just been reached .

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached.

December Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – December Gold:   Gold's drop late last week exceed the size of the biggest break on the way up from its 1530 low. I think this means that the market is headed back to 1530 and possibly lower.  

SLV - December Silver: I now think silver is headed below 26.00.  

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  The downside target is 560. Resistance above the market is at 638.

Guesstimates on November 6, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1412-1420. The ES has been stronger than I had expected after Friday's sharp break. If the market spends most of a day above 1420 and closes above that level too I will abandon the 1310-20 downside target, at least temporarily.

QQQ:  Downside target is 61.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350. Support is at 1.2750.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached.

December Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – December Gold:   Gold's drop late last week exceed the size of the biggest break on the way up from its 1530 low. I think this means that the market is headed back to 1530 and possibly lower.  

SLV - December Silver: I now think silver is headed below 26.00.  

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  The downside target is 560. Resistance above the market is at 638.

Guesstimates on November 5, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1398-1412. The ES could not hold above the key 1419.75 level Friday and that is more evidence that the market is headed for 1310-1320.

QQQ:  Downside target is 61.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350. Support is at 1.2750.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached.

December Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – December Gold:   Gold's drop late last week exceed the size of the biggest break on the way up from its 1530 low. I think this means that the market is headed back to 1530 and possibly lower.  

SLV - December Silver: I now think silver is headed below 26.00.  

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  The downside target is 560. Resistance above the market is at 638.

Guesstimates on November 2, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1423-34. The ES looks like it has climbed back above resistance at the 1419.75 level formed by the March 27 top. If it stays there for the rest of the day I will turn bullish and start looking for a rally to new highs for the bull market.  

QQQ:  Downside target is 61 but the S&P action is casting doubt on this.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350. Support is at 1.2750.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached.

December Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  The downside target is 560. Resistance above the market is at 638.

S&P 500

Here is a daily chart of the cash S&P 500 going back to the start of 2011.

At the moment this average looks like it is headed for 1310-1320, the range where the drop from the September 14 top would equal the size of the March-June 2012 drop (blue dash rectangles). You can see that the market formed a small trading range with three tops at roughly the same level after September 14. During the last half of October the S&P broke out to the downside from this range. Such breakouts after an extended advance are generally pretty reliable bearish indications.

If the market is really headed down to 1310-20 then I would expect it to remain below resistance at the lower end of the September-October trading range (red dash line) which is roughly the 1430 level. It should also stay below its 50 day moving average (black wavy line) which has started to flatten out.

As a rule the 200 day moving average (wavy red line) is a useful trend indicator. Right now it is rising and the market is trading above a rising 200 day moving average which says that this is still a bull market. But a drop to 1310-20 would put the S&P below this moving average. If the subsequent rally stalls near the 200 day moving average as it starts to flatten out I think at that point one could reasonably conclude that the long term trend has turned downward.

You George Lindsay fans know that I think we have seen the top of the domed house in the 3 peaks and a domed house formation. If so the bull market is over. A break below the 200 day moving average followed by a rally which can't get the market back above that moving average would confirm this prognosis and the top of that rally would probably turn out point 27 of the domed house.

Guesstimates on November 1, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1405-1419.  I think the ES is on the way  to 1300 or so.

QQQ:  Downside target is 61.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350. Support is at 1.2750.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached.

December Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower.

GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.

Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for the next move up to 800 and higher.   

Apple:  The downside target is 560. Resistance above the market is at 638.