Guesstimates on August 8, 2012

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1387-1397.  The ES is headed for the 1405-1420 range and eventually higher than that.  

QQQ:  A move to 76 is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield is trading below  the low of its recent multi-month trading range. The next significant move should bring yields up to 3.00% and higher.   

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market remains at 1.2760. The market looks like it is on its way to 1.1900.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.

September  Crude: The market has reached resistance at 93.  I think the next development will be a resumption of the bear market in crude. Next downside target is 66.

GLD – December Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is underway.  

SLV - September Silver: A sustained move up is underway.

Google: Google held support near 562 and now is headed up to 750.

Apple: I think the market is headed above its 644 top and probably to 690-700.  Support stands at 560.

Guesstimates on August 7, 2012

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1391-1403.  The ES is headed for the 1405-1420 range and eventually higher than that.  

QQQ:  A move to 76 is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield is trading below  the low of its recent multi-month trading range. The next significant move should bring yields up to 3.00% and higher.   

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market remains at 1.2760. The market looks like it is on its way to 1.1900.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.

September  Crude: The market has reached resistance at 93.  I think the next development will be a resumption of the bear market in crude. Next downside target is 66.

GLD – December Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is underway.  

SLV - September Silver: A sustained move up is underway.

Google: Google held support near 562 and now is headed up to 750.

Apple: I think the market is headed above its 644 top and probably to 690-700.  Support stands at 560.

Guesstimates on August 6, 2012

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1387-98.  The ES is headed for the 1405-1420 range and eventually higher than that.  

QQQ:  A move to 76 is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield is trading below  the low of its recent multi-month trading range. The next significant move should bring yields up to 3.00% and higher.   

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market remains at 1.2760. The market looks like it is on its way to 1.1900.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.

September  Crude: The market has reached resistance at 93.  I think the next development will be a resumption of the bear market in crude. Next downside target is 66.

GLD – December Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is underway.  

SLV - September Silver: A sustained move up is underway.

Google: Google held support near 562 and now is headed up to 750.

Apple: I think the market is headed above its 644 top and probably to 690-700.  Support stands at 560.

Guesstimates on August 3, 2012

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1372-87.  The ES is headed for the 1405-1420 range.  

QQQ:  A move to 76 is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield is trading below  the low of its recent multi-month trading range. The next significant move should bring yields up to 3.00% and higher.   

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market remains at 1.2760. The market looks like it is on its way to 1.1900.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.

September  Crude: The market has reached resistance at 93.  I think the next development will be a resumption of the bear market in crude. Next downside target is 66.

GLD – December Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is underway.  

SLV - September Silver: A sustained move up is underway.

Google: Google held support near 562 and now is headed up to 750.

Apple: I think the market is headed above its 644 top and probably to 690-700.  Support stands at 560.

Guesstimates on August 2, 2012

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1353-68.  The ES is headed for the 1405-1420 range.  

QQQ:  A move to 76 is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield is trading below  the low of its recent multi-month trading range. The next significant move should bring yields up to 3.00% and higher.   

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market remains at 1.2760. The market looks like it is on its way to 1.1900.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.

September  Crude: The market has reached resistance at 93.  I think the next development will be a resumption of the bear market in crude. Next downside target is 66.

GLD – December Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is underway.  

SLV - September Silver: A sustained move up is underway.

Google: Google held support near 562 and now is headed up to 750.

Apple: I think the market is headed above its 644 top and probably to 690-700.  Support stands at 560.

Fed pledges failure for two more years!

About 15 minutes ago the Fed announced no change in its current monetary policy. It predicted that very low short term rates will persist until the end of 2014.

As you know (or should know) very low interest rates are associated with periods of high unemployment and very slow economic growth. So the Fed has pledged to continue its failed monetary policy for two more years while doing nothing to promote a reduction in the unemployment rate and increased rates of economic growth. And this during a time when the rest of the government seems determined to drive the US off of a fiscal cliff!

Well things are what they are. The important task now is to see how the market responds to this bearish announcement from the Fed. Right now the S&P is holding above the low it made right after the announcement. I'd say that if it manages to close up on the day we will have the first bit of evidence that the market's technical condition is very strong and much higher prices lie ahead. A still higher close tomorrow would be even more convincing evidence of technical strength because the European Central Bank is scheduled to announce the results of its latest meeting tomorrow before the markets in the US open.

My own suspicion is that the S&P will put in these higher closes and if it does my view that the market is headed above 1400 will be reinforced.

Guesstimates on August 1, 2012

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1375-93.  The ES is headed for the 1405-1420 range.  

QQQ:  A move to 76 is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield is trading below  the low of its recent multi-month trading range. The next significant move should bring yields up to 3.00% and higher.   

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market remains at 1.2760. The market looks like it is on its way to 1.1900. Draghis's promise to save the EU is long term bearish for the currency because it will require an expansion of euro liquidity relative to dollar liquidity.   

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.

September  Crude: The market has reached resistance at 93.  I think the next development will be a resumption of the bear market in crude. Next downside target is 66.

GLD – December Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is underway.  

SLV - September Silver: A sustained move up is underway.

Google: Google held support near 562 and now is headed up to 750.

Apple: I think the market is headed above its 644 top and probably to 690-700.  Support stands at 560.