Guesstimates on June 8, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1309-25. The fast rally to yesterday's high at 1329 had all the earmarks of a lock-out rally following a shakeout below the 1287 low. This means that 1262 ended the correction from 1419.75 and that the  ES is headed for new bull market highs.

QQQ:  It now looks like the correction is over. A move to new bull market highs is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield had dropped below  the low of its recent multi-month trading range. I suspect that QE III is just around the corner. If it is yields will head back up to 3.00% and higher.   

Euro-US Dollar: The market has bounced off of 1.2250 support. I see no sign that the decline is over. Indeed EU survival will require a much lower euro than we see now. I think the market will eventually drop well below 1.1500.   

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.

July  Crude: The market is headed  down to  75.   

GLD – August Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is underway.  

SLV - July Silver: A sustained move up is underway.

Google: Google should hold support near 562 and then  resume its move up to 750.

Apple: So far AAPL has held well above its low at 528 (I think the reported 522.16 low was a bad tick!) even as the S&P and the Dow have broken below their corresponding lows. This is a very bullish development. It makes me think the AAPL is now in fact headed above its 644 top instead of to 520 as I had thought previously. 

Guesstimates on June 7, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1317-1333. Yesterday's fast rally started after the market had moved back above its May 21 low at 1287.25. It has all the earmarks of a lock-out rally following a shakeout below that low. This means that 1262 ended the correction from 1419.75 and that the  ES is headed for new bull market highs.

QQQ:  It now looks like the correction is over. A move to new bull market highs is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield had dropped below  the low of its recent multi-month trading range. I suspect that QE III is just around the corner. If it is yields will head back up to 3.00% and higher.   

Euro-US Dollar: The market has bounced off of 1.2250 support. I see no sign that the decline is over. Indeed EU survival will require a much lower euro than we see now. I think the market will eventually drop well below 1.1500.   

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.

July  Crude: The market is headed  down to  75.   

GLD – August Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is underway.  

SLV - July Silver: A sustained move up is underway.

Google: Google should hold support near 562 and then  resume its move up to 750.

Apple: So far AAPL has held well above its low at 528 (I think the reported 522.16 low was a bad tick!) even as the S&P and the Dow have broken below their corresponding lows. This is a very bullish development. It makes me think the AAPL is now in fact headed above its 644 top instead of to 520 as I had thought previously. 

headed up

All of the charts you see above can be found on my chart page updating in real time.

The top chart above this post shows the daily cash S&P. As you can see the market dropped to about 1265 Monday, about 20 points lower than what I thought would be strong support at the October 27, 2011 top (green dash line).

Today's rally pushed the S&P back above that support level and this makes the break below 1295 on the employment news look like a shakeout which often precedes a big move in the opposite direction.

The other three charts provide more evidence for this shakeout -then -rally hypothesis. The second chart from the top shows the cumulative daily advance decline line on the New York Stock exchange. Unlike the Dow and the S&P this indicator did not break its May 21 low this past Monday. It also has held well above its rising 200 day moving average, another bullish sign.

The bottom two charts show the 5 day (purple line) and 10 day moving averages of the daily number of advancing issues on the New York Stock Exchange. Notice that the 5 day moving average dipped to a higher low this past Monday, thus diverging bullishly from the action of the S&P and the Dow which put in lower lows. The 10 day moving average has risen steadily from the May 21 low, another bullish divergence.

Given the high levels of bearish sentiment which I pointed out last week these divergences are telling me that the correction from the March-April tops is over. I think a move to new bull market highs has started.

Guesstimates on June 6, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1286-1301. The market has moved back above its May 21 low at 1287.25 and this is a modestly bullish development. It becomes more significant because the advancing issues oscillators showed bullish divergences at the 1262 low. I think it is likely that 1262 ended the drop from 1419.75.

QQQ:  Support is still  at 59.50 but it now looks like the correction is over. A move to new bull market highs should be the next development.

TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield had dropped below  the low of its recent multi-month trading range. I suspect that QE III is just around the corner. If it is yields will head back up to 3.00% and higher.   

Euro-US Dollar: The market is bouncing off of 1.2250 support. I see no sign that the decline is over. Indeed EU survival will require a much lower euro than we see now. I think the market will eventually drop well below 1.1500.   

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.

July  Crude: The market is headed  down to  75.   

GLD – August Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is about to start.  

SLV - July Silver: The market is getting close to its December low at 26.27 where a sustained move up is likely to start.

Google: Google should hold support near 562 and then  resume its move up to 750.

Apple: So far AAPL has held well above its low at 528 (I think the reported 522.16 low was a bad tick!) even as the S&P and the Dow have broken below their corresponding lows. This is a very bullish development. It makes me think the AAPL is now in fact headed above its 644 top instead of to 520 as I had thought previously. 

Guesstimates on June 5, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1266-80. The market has dropped 25 points below the may 21 low at 1287.25, more than I would expect to see during a base building period. A  fast move back above 1287 is likely and if it occurs then the short term picture will be very bullish. Given the heavily bearish market sentiment I think that a big rally is imminent.  

QQQ:  Support now is at 59.50. The drop from 68.50 is nearly over and should be followed by a move to new bull market highs.

TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield had dropped below  the low of its recent multi-month trading range. I suspect that QE III is just around the corner. If it is yields will head back up to 3.00% and higher.   

Euro-US Dollar: The market is bouncing off of 1.2250 support. I see no sign that the decline is over. Indeed EU survival will require a much lower euro than we see now. I think the market will eventually drop well below 1.1500.   

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.

July  Crude: The market is headed  down to  75.   

GLD – August Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is about to start.  

SLV - July Silver: The market is getting close to its December low at 26.27 where a sustained move up is likely to start.

Google: Google broke support at 590 and is now headed for its January low at 562. From there the market should resume its move up to 750.

Apple: So far AAPL has held well above its low at 528 (I think the reported 522.16 low was a bad tick!) even as the S&P and the Dow have broken below their corresponding lows. This is a very bullish development. It makes me think the AAPL is now in fact headed above its 644 top instead of to 520 as I had thought previously. 

Guesstimates on June 4, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1270-1285. The market has dropped 25 points below the may 21 low at 1287.25, more than I would expect to see during a base building period. A  fast move back above 1287 is likely and if it occurs then the short term picture will be very bullish. Given the heavily bearish market sentiment I think that a big rally is imminent.  

QQQ:  Support now is at 59.50. The drop from 68.50 is nearly over and should be followed by a move to new bull market highs.

TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield had dropped below  the low of its recent multi-month trading range. I suspect that QE III is just around the corner. If it is yields will head back up to 3.00% and higher.   

Euro-US Dollar: The market is bouncing off of 1.2250 support. I see no sign that the decline is over. Indeed EU survival will require a much lower euro than we see now. I think the market will eventually drop well below 1.1500.   

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.

July  Crude: The market is headed  down to  75.   

GLD – August Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is about to start.  

SLV - July Silver: The market is getting close to its December low at 26.27 where a sustained move up is likely to start.

Google: Google broke support at 590 and is now headed for its January low at 562. From there the market should resume its move up to 750.

Apple: So far AAPL has held well above its low at 528 (I think the reported 522.16 low was a bad tick!) even as the S&P and the Dow have broken below their corresponding lows. This is a very bullish development. It makes me think the AAPL is now in fact headed above its 644 top instead of to 520 as I had thought previously. 

Guesstimates on June 1, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1275-1290. The October 2011 top at 1289.25 is strong support. I think a base building period is nearly complete. The drop this morning on the employment news below the May 21 low sets ups bullish divergences on my advancing issues oscillators. Given the heavily bearish market sentiment I think this means that a big rally is imminent.  

QQQ:  Support now is at 59.50. The drop from 68.50 is nearly over and should be followed by a move to new bull market highs.

TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield is back to the low of its recent multi-month trading range. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to  3.00%.  

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has reached 126.00 support.  I think the market will drop to 1.2250 before any rally of more than 200 pips develops.  

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.

July  Crude: The market is headed  down to  75.   

GLD – August Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is about to start.  

SLV - July Silver: The market is getting close to its December low at 26.27 where a sustained move up is likely to start.

Google: Google broke support at 590 and is now headed for its January low at 562. From there the market should resume its move up to 750.

Apple: So far AAPL has held well above its low at 528 (I think the reported 522.16 low was a bad tick!) even as the S&P and the Dow have broken below their corresponding lows. This is a very bullish development. It makes me think the AAPL is now in fact headed above its 644 top instead of to 520 as I had thought previously.