Guesstimates on May 8, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: I am beginning to think that the drop below the April 10 low at 1352.50 which carried the ES to 1342.50 Sunday night was a shakeout. If so the ES won't spend much if any time below 1352.50 and the market will be headed above 1419.75. Any tendency to trade below 1352.50 will mean that the ES will continue its drop into the 1320-30 zone. In either case I think we are seeing a normal reaction in a bull market and I think we will also see the ES trade well above 1420 during the coming months.

QQQ:  Downside target is 62.50.          

TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to  3.00%.  

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has decisively broken below support at 81.00. This means that the market is headed for 75 and lower.

June Crude: Support at 100 has been decisively broken. It looks like the market is headed  down to  75.   

GLD – June Gold:  Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support now is at 28.50 (not 18.50  as I mistakenly wrote yesterday).

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Support is at 590.    

Apple: The ES has probably its reaction low on a shakeout below 1352.50. If so AAPL will probably hold above its reaction low at 555. If it doesn't then I would expect a drop to strong support at 520. In either case a move to new highs above 644 is in the cards. 

Guesstimates on May 7, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1352-1362. The ES broke below 1375 decisively Friday and in Asian trading last night took out the 1352.50 April 10 low while dropping as low as 1342.50. The ES has since rallied 17 points and I think the market will climb further to 1378 or so before testing and probably breaking the 1342.50 low. The ultimate low of the reaction will probably develop in the 1320-30 range. I still think this is a reaction in an ongoing bull market and expect to see the market trade well over 1420 during the coming months.   

QQQ:  Downside target is 62.50.          

TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to  3.00%.  

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has decisively broken below support at 81.00. This means that the market is headed for 75 and lower.

June Crude: Support at 100 has been decisively broken. It looks like the market is headed  down to  75.   

GLD – June Gold:  Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level was broken and now 18.50 looks like support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Support is at 590.    

Apple: The ES has established a new reaction low and AAPL is likely to do so too. However there is strong support near 520 and that is the worst I expect to see on the downside before AAPL moves to new bull market highs.  

Guesstimates on May 4, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1375-90. Should the market start spending time below 1375 I would then conclude that the 1352.50 low will be broken in the course of a drop to 1320-30.  

QQQ:  Upside target is now 72.50.          

TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to  3.00%.  

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has decisively broken below support at 81.00. This means that the market is headed for 75 and lower.

June Crude: An extended upswing is underway. Support is at 100.  

GLD – June Gold:  Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level was broken and now 18.50 looks like support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Support is at 590.    

Apple: Since the ES appear to have established its reaction low I now think that AAPL will hold its 555 low. After a period of sideways action Apple should then  move above the 700 level. 

headed higher

Here is a daily bar chart of the cash S&P for the past year.

It looks to me like the April 10, 2012 low will hold and that the market is headed for at least 1465 and quite possibly for 1575. You can see that the April 10 low developed just below the rising 50 day moving average and at the rising blue dash trend line I have drawn. Not only that but at the low the market had dropped just a shade less than it had during the December 2011 reaction (blue dash rectangles). And the S&P was only about 10 points below its 2011 high (green dash line) - normally markets find support near old high points once they have advanced far enough above them.

All in  all it looks like the April 10 low ended  a normal bull market reaction. How far up might the market go from that low around 1360? I see two obvious measuring sticks. The first is the rally from November 25, 2011 to December 8, 2011 which carried the S&P up about 105 points. A similar rally from  1360 would put the market at 1465.The second measuring stick is the rally from the October 4 low to the October 27 high in 2011. That rally was about 215 points. Adding that to 1360 gives an upside target of 1575, just about the level of the 2007 bull market top.

Guesstimates on May 3, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1398-1410. The ES has staged an upside breakout from its 1352-1390 trading range. I think this means that the market is headed for 1475 and higher over the coming weeks

QQQ:  Upside target is now 72.50.          

TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to  3.00%.  

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has decisively broken below support at 81.00. This means that the market is headed for 75 and lower.

June Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold:  Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Support is at 590.    

Apple: Since the ES appear to have established its reaction low I now think that AAPL will hold its 555 low. After a period of sideways action Apple should then  move above the 700 level. 

Guesstimates on May 2, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1388-1400. The ES has staged an upside breakout from its 1352-1390 trading range. I think this means that the market is headed for 1475 and higher over the coming weeks

QQQ:  Upside target is now 72.50.          

TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to  3.00%.  

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has decisively broken below support at 81.00. This means that the market is headed for 75 and lower.

June Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold:  Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Support is at 590.    

Apple: Since the ES appear to have established its reaction low I now think that AAPL will hold its 555 low. After a period of sideways action Apple should then  move above the 700 level. 

Guesstimates on May 1, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1390-1402. The ES has staged an upside breakout from its 1352-1390 trading range. I think this means that the market is headed for 1475 and higher over the coming weeks

QQQ:  Upside target is now 72.50.          

TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to  3.00%.  

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has decisively broken below support. This means that the market is headed for 75 and lower.

June Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold:  Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Support is at 590.    

Apple: Since the ES appear to have established its reaction low I now think that AAPL will hold its 555 low. After a period of sideways action Apple should then  move above the 700 level.