Guesstimates on March 8, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1357-1367. The rally from the November 25 low matched the size of the October 2011 rally and also carried the market to its May 2011 top. A drop of 50-70 points has probably started. But even so I expect the market to move well above the1400 level over the next few months.

QQQ: Resistance stands in the 63-65 zone and a break to 61.50 will probably be the next development.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has bounced twice off of 1.3485, just shy of my 1.3540 target. My best guess is that the rally from 1.2623 is nearly over.

Dollar-Yen: I am switching my views on the yen. It has started to accept prices above the 81.00 level. I now think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

April Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold should find support near 1680. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 32.50 level is support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: AAPL is trading between 545 resistance and 518 support. Next upside target is 575.

Guesstimates on March 7, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1340-1352. The rally from the November 25 low matched the size of the October 2011 rally and also carried the market to its May 2011 top. A drop of 50-70 points has probably started. But even so I expect the market to move well above the1400 level over the next few months.

QQQ: Resistance stands in the 63-65 zone and a break to 61.50 will probably be the next development.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has bounced twice off of 1.3485, just shy of my 1.3540 target. My best guess is that the rally from 1.2623 is nearly over.

Dollar-Yen: I am switching my views on the yen. It has started to accept prices above the 81.00 level. I now think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

April Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold should find support near 1680. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 32.50 level is support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: AAPL has bounced off 545 resistance. Support is at 518. Next upside target is 575.

to 1310 then up

Here is a daily bar chart of the March 2012 ES going back to the October 4, 2011 low.

As I have explained in previous posts there is strong resistance near 1375 for two reasons. First, the 2011 high on May 2 of that year was 1373.50 (red dash line). Second, a rally from the November 25, 2011 low which matched the size of the October 2011 rally would have ended at 1366 (large blue dash rectangles).

Today's price action looks like a downside breakout from a small trading range which had formed during the past two weeks. I think it means that the ES is headed for the dash green trendline. A more precise estimate of the upcoming break is the size of the drop in early December which was about 71 points. That gives a downside target of 1306 (small blue dash rectangles).

I think this is only a normal correction in an ongoing bull market. There is still the possibility that the ES is forming the top of a domed house (see this post) but if so it still should rally above its recent 1377 top before the top is complete. A more bullish prospect is that there is no ongoing 3 peaks and a domed house formation and that instead the market is headed for its 2007 top at 1587.

Guesstimates on March 6, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1350-1362. The rally from the November 25 low has matched the size of the October 2011 rally and has also carried the market to its May 2011 top. So I think it is likely that the market's advance will pause near this resistance. A drop of 50-70 points is likely. But even so I expect the market to move well above the1400 level over the next few months.

QQQ: Resistance stands in the 63-65 zone and a break to 59.50 will probably be the next development.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has bounced twice off of 1.3485, just shy of my 1.3540 target. My best guess is that the rally from 1.2623 is nearly over.

Dollar-Yen: I am switching my views on the yen. It has started to accept prices above the 81.00 level. I now think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

April Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold should find support near 1680. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 32.50 level is support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: AAPL has bounced off 545 resistance. Support is at 518. Next upside target is 575.

Guesstimates on March 5, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1363-1375. The rally from the November 25 low has now matched the size of the October 2011 rally and has also carried the market to its May 2011 top. So I think it is likely that the market's advance will pause near this resistance. A drop of 50-70 points is likely. But even so I expect the market to move well above the1400 level over the next few months.

QQQ: Resistance stands in the 63-65 zone and a break to 59.50 will probably be the next development.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has bounced twice off of 1.3485, just shy of my 1.3540 target. My best guess is that the rally from 1.2623 is nearly over.

Dollar-Yen: I am switching my views on the yen. It has started to accept prices above the 81.00 level. I now think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

April Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold should find support near 1680. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: AAPL has reached 545 resistance. I think it will stall here temporarily. Support is at 518. Next upside target is 575.

Guesstimates on March 2, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1368-1377. The rally from the November 25 low has now matched the size of the October 2011 rally and has also carried the market to its May 2011 top. So I think it is likely that the market's advance will pause near this resistance. A drop of 50-70 points is likely. But even so I expect the market to move well above the1400 level over the next few months.

QQQ: Resistance stands in the 63-65 zone and a break to 59.50 will probably be the next development.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has bounced twice off of 1.3485, just shy of my 1.3540 target. My best guess is that the rally from 1.2623 is nearly over.

Dollar-Yen: I am switching my views on the yen. It has started to accept prices above the 81.00 level. I now think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold should find support near 1680 after yesterday's $90 break. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: AAPL reached 545 resistance yesterday. I think it will stall here temporarily. Support is at 518.

Guesstimates on March 1

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1358-1370. The rally from the November 25 low has carried the market up to its May 2011 top. The rally from the November 25 low has now matched the size of the October 2011 rally. So I think it is likely that the market's advance will pause near this resistance. A drop of 50-70 points is likely. But even so I expect the market to move well above the1400 level over the next few months.

QQQ: Resistance stands in the 63-65 zone and a break to 59.50 will probably be the next development.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: On Friday the euro traded as high as 1.3485, just shy of my 1.3540 target. My best guess is that the rally from 1.2623 is nearly over.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has been trading a little above resistance at 80.00. If the market starts spending time above 81.00 I will conclude that it is headed for 90.00. Until then I am sticking with my 70.00 target.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: Gold should find support near 1680 after yesterday's $90 break. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: AAPL reached 545 resistance yesterday. I think it will stall here temporarily. Support is at 518.