Guesstimates on January 13, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1275-1287. It looks like the market is about to break at least 40-50 points . The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on January 12, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1287-97. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

update

Here is a daily bar chart showing the past five months price action in the March '12 e-mini futures.

Looking at this chart is it is obvious that the current trend is upward and has been since the October 4 low at 1062. The market is trying to breakout above its early December and late October high points (red dash lines).

The fact that volume has been so low during this breakout attempt and that the five and ten day advancing issues oscillators on my chart page are showing minor bearish divergences suggest that this first attempt will fail. But whatever reaction materializes should end above the December 18 low at 1195.50. The drop into that low was about 70 points and a similar size drop from yesterday's 1292 high would bring the ES down to 1222 (purple dash rectangles). The 1222 level is also right on top of the bottom trendline of the bullish trend channel I have drawn.

Whether the current breakout attempt fails or succeeds I think that the ES will move substantially higher during the next few months. The October rally was 221 points and a similar size rally from the November 25 low at 1142 would put the ES at 1363 (blue dash rectangles).

I still see a lot of pessimistic assessments of US and European economic performance for the coming year. But I think the summer 2011 drop discounted the worst that is likely to happen. So I think that the markets, both here and in Europe, are in the process of climbing the "wall of worry" which under-girds all big bull market swings.

Guesstimates on January 11, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1274-85. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on January 10, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1282-1294. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on January 9, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1274-1286. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on January 6, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1275-1288. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro broke below 1.2820 support. Next support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.