2012 daily guesstimates

DECEMBER

December 31 - 8:30 am ET

December 28 - 8:30 am ET
December 27 - 8:30 am ET
December 26 - 8:30 am ET
December 24 - 8:30 am ET

December 21 - 8:30 am ET
December 20 - 8:30 am ET
December 19 - 8:30 am ET
December 18 - 8:30 am ET
December 17 - 8:30 am ET

December 14 - 8:30 am ET
December 13 - 8:30 am ET
December 12 - 8:30 am ET
December 11 - 8:30 am ET
December 10 - 8:30 am ET

December 7 - 8:30 am ET
December 6 - 8:30 am ET
December 5 - 8:30 am ET
December 4 - 8:30 am ET
December 3 - 8:30 am ET


NOVEMBER

November 30 - 8:30 am ET
November 29 - 8:30 am ET
November 28 - 8:30 am ET
November 27 - 8:30 am ET
November 26 - 8:30 am ET

November 23 - 8:30 am ET
November 21 - 8:30 am ET
November 20 - 8:30 am ET
November 19 - 8:30 am ET

November 16-  8:30 am ET
November 15 - 8:30 am ET
November 14 - 8:30 am ET
November 13 - 8:30 am ET
November 12 - 8:30 am ET

November 9 - 8:30 am ET
November 8 - 8:30 am ET
November 7 - 8:30 am ET
November 6 - 8:30 am ET
November 5 - 8:30 am ET

November 2 - 8:30 am ET
November 1 - 8:30 am ET

OCTOBER

October 31 - 8:30 am ET
October 30 - 8:30 am ET
October 29 - 8:30 am ET

October 26 - 8:30 am ET
October 25 - 8:30 am ET
October 24 - 8:30 am ET
October 23 - 8:30 am ET
October 22 - 8:30 am ET

October 19 - 8:30 am ET
October 18 - 8:30 am ET
October 17 - 8:30 am ET
October 16 - 8:30 am ET
October 15 - 8:30 am ET

October 12 - 8:30 am ET
October 11 - 8:30 am ET
October 10 - 8:30 am ET
October 9 - 8:30 am ET
October 8 - 8:30 am ET

October 5 - 8:30 am ET
October 4 - 8:30 am ET
October 3 - 8:30 am ET
October 2 - 8:30 am ET
October 1 - 8:30 am ET

SEPTEMBER


September 28 - 8:30 am ET
September 27 - 8:30 am ET
September 26 - 8:30 am ET
September 25 - 8:30 am ET
September 24 - 8:30 am ET

September 21 - 8:30 am ET
September 20 - 8:30 am ET
September 19 - 8:30 am ET
September 18 - 8:30 am ET
September 17 - 8:30 am ET

September 14 - 8:30 am ET
September 13 - 8:30 am ET
September 12 - 8:30 am ET
September 11 - 8:30 am ET
September 10 - 8:30 am ET

September 7 - 8:30 am ET
September 6 - 8:30 am ET
September 5 - 8:30 am ET
September 4 - 8:30 am ET

AUGUST

August 31 - 8:30 am ET
August 30 - 8:30 am ET
August 29 - 8:30 am ET
August 28 - 8:30 am ET
August 27 - 8:30 am ET

August 24 - 8:30 am ET
August 23 - 8:30 am ET
August 22 - 8:30 am ET
August 21 - 8:30 am ET
August 20 - 8:30 am ET

August 17 - 8:30 am ET
August 16 - 8:30 am ET
August 15 - 8:30 am ET
August 14 - 8:30 am ET
August 13 - 8:30 am ET

August 10 - 8:30 am ET
August 9 - 8:30 am ET
August 8 - 8:30 am ET
August 7 - 8:30 am ET
August 6 - 8:30 am ET

August 3 - 8:30 am ET
August 2 - 8:30 am ET
August 1 - 8:30 am ET

JULY

July 31 - 8:30 am ET
July 30 - 8:30 am ET

July 27 - 8:30 amET
July 26 - 8:30 am ET
July 25 - 8:30 am ET
July 24 - 8:30 am ET
July 23 - 8:30 am ET

July 20 - 8:30 am ET
July 19 - 8:30 am ET
July 18 - 8:30 am ET
July 17 - 8:30 am ET
July 16 - 8:30 am ET

July 12 - 8:30 am ET
July 11 - 8:30 am ET
July 10 - 8:30 am ET
July 9 - 8:30 am ET

July 6 - 8:30 am ET
July 5 - 8:30 am ET
July 3 - 8:30 am ET
July 2 - 8:30 am ET

JUNE

June 29 - 8:30 am ET
June 28 - 8:30 am ET
June 27 - 8:30 am ET
June 26 - 8:30 am ET
June 25 - 8:30 am ET

June 22 - 8:30 am ET
June 21 - 8:30 am ET
June 20 - 8:30 am ET
June 19 - 8:30 am ET
June 18 - 8:30 am ET

June 15 - 8:30 am ET
June14 -  8:30 am ET
June 13 - 8:30 am ET
June 12 - 8:30 am ET
June 11 - 8:30 am ET

June 8 - 8:30 am ET
June 7 - 8:30 am ET
June 6 - 8:30 am ET
June 5 - 8:30 am ET
June 4 - 8:30 am ET

June 1 - 8:30 am ET

MAY

May 31 - 8:30 am ET
May 30 - 8:30 am ET
May 29 - 8:30 am ET

May 25 - 8:30 am ET
May 24 - 8:30 am ET
May 23 - 8:30 am ET
May 22 - 8:30 am ET
May 21 - 8:30 am ET

May 18 - 8:30 am ET
May 17 - 8:30 am ET
May 16 - 8:30 am ET
May 15 - 8:30 am ET
May 14 - 8:30 am ET

May 11 - 8:30 am ET
May 10 - 8:30 am ET
May 9 - 8:30 am ET
May 8 - 8:30 am ET
May 7 - 8:30 am ET

May 4 - 8:30 am ET  
May 3 - 8:30 am ET
May 2 - 8:30 am ET
May 1 - 8:30 am ET

APRIL

April 30 - 8:30 am ET

April 27 - 8:30 am ET
April 26 - 8:30 am ET
April 25 - 8:30 am ET
April 24 - 8:30 am ET
April 23 - 8:30 am ET

April 20 - 8:30 am ET
April 19 - 8:30 am ET
April 18 - 8:30 am ET
April 17 - 8:30 am ET
April 16 - 8:30 am ET

April 13 - 8:30 am ET
April 12 - 8:30 am ET
April 11 - 8:30 am ET
April 10 - 8:30 am ET
April 9 - 8:30 am ET

April 5 - 8:30 am ET
April 4 - 8:30 am ET
April 3 - 8:30 am ET
April 2 - 8:30 am ET

MARCH

March 30 - 8:30 am ET
March 29 - 8:30 am ET
March 28 - 8:30 am ET
March 27 - 8:30 am ET
March 26 - 8:30 am ET

March 23 - 8:30 am ET
March 22 - 8:30 am ET
March 21 - 8:30 am ET
March 20 - 8:30 am ET
March 19 - 8:30 am ET

March 16 - 8:30 am ET
March 15 - 8:30 am ET
March 14 - 8:30 am ET
March 13 - 8:30 am ET
March 12 - 8:30 am ET

March 9 - 8:45 am ET
March 8 - 8:45 am ET
March 7 - 8:45 am ET
March 6 - 8:45 am ET
March 5 - 8:45 am ET

March 2 - 8:45 am ET
March 1 - 8:45 am ET

FEBRUARY

February 29 - 8:45 am ET
February 28 - 8:45 am ET
February 27 - 8:45 am ET

February 24 - 8:45 am ET
February 23 - 8:45 am ET
February 22 - 8:45 am ET
February 21 - 8:45 am ET

February 17 - 8:45 am ET
February 16 - 8:45 am ET
February 15 - 8:45 am ET
February 14 - 8:45 am ET
February 13 - 8:45 am ET

February 10 - 8:45 am ET
February 9 - 8:45 am ET
February 8 - 8:45 am ET
February 7 - 8:45 am ET
February 6 - 8:45 am ET

February 3 - 8:45 am ET
February 2 - 8:45 am ET
February 1 - 8:45 am ET


JANUARY

January 31 - 8:45 am ET
January 30 - 8:45 am ET

January 27 - 8:45 am ET
January 26 - 8:45 am ET
January 25 - 8:45 am ET
January 24 - 8:45 am ET
January 23 - 8:45 am ET

January 20 - 8:45 am ET
January 19 - 8:45 am ET
January 18 - 8:45 am ET
January 17 - 8:45 am ET

January 13 - 8:45 am ET
January 12 - 8:45 am ET
January 11 - 8:45 am ET
January 10 - 8:45 am ET
January 9 - 8:45 am ET

January 6 - 8:45 am ET
January 5 - 8:45 am ET
January 4 - 8:45 am ET
January 3 - 8:45 am ET

Guesstimates on January 3, 2012

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1270-1285. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2820 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on December 30, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1256-1268. I now looks like the drop from 1264 ended at 1243 and that the ES is on its way to 1284. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2820 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on December 29, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1236-1254. The drop from yesterday's 1264 high should carry the ES down at least to 1236 and more probably to 1212. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2820 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

what's going on

Here are four daily bar charts which together paint a clear picture of the economic forces at work in the markets over the past few weeks and for the coming few months.

The European Central Bank has decided to bolster the liquidity of the EU banking system by buying sovereign bonds from private banks for euros and then putting them on the ECB's own balance sheet. This policy should send the euro-currency down against the dollar, and indeed that is what we see in the euro-currency daily chart (second from top).

This ECB policy is designed to avert a banking crisis which would tank the entire EU economy. European stock markets right now think the ECB will attain this policy goal as you can see from the top chart of the French CAC stock market index - while the Euro has tanked the CAC has stabilized and even shows a series of higher lows which bodes well for the immediate future.

The US stock market has been worrying about fallout from Europe putting pressure on US banks and even threatening another banking crisis in the US. But as you can see in the bottom chart of the S&P bank stock index, US bank stocks are actually outperforming the S&P itself - this index is above not only its 200 day moving average (red line) but also above its October 27 high (green dash line). The market seems to think that better times are ahead for US banks.

Finally note the second chart up from the bottom which shows the performance of the Philadelphia stock exchange housing stock index. Like the S&P bank stock index it is trading above its October 27 top as well as above its 200 day moving average. This suggests that a recovery in residential housing construction is underway in the US, a positive sign for the US economy.

Taken together these four charts all suggest that the thick blanket of gloom which currently envelopes the US stock market is about to lift. Better times and higher prices lie ahead.

Guesstimates on December 28, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1260-1271. A rally from 1195, the December 19 low, which matches the size of the rally from November 25 to December 8 would put the e-minis at 1319. The longer term trend is also upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2820 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on December 27, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1252-1262. A rally from 1195, the December 19 low, which matches the size of the rally from November 25 to December 8 would put the e-minis at 1319. The longer term trend is also upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2820 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.