European crisis update

For those of you who are following the EU debt crisis here is a link which suggests things are starting to turn around in the short run, pretty much as I suggested they would in this last post.

Take a look at this too.

Guesstimates on December 16, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1215-1230. The trend is upward and a rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370. The drop from 1266 will probably end near 1175, although a close today above 1223 would mean that it instead ended at the 1198 low point yesterday.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has dropped below its October 4 low. Next support is at 1.2820. Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 .

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

update

Here is a daily bar chart of the March '12 e-minis.

I think the October 4 low at 1062 and the November 25 low at 1142 are first two lows in a sequence of higher lows. The ES is in the process of dropping to its third higher low which I expect to develop around 1175 at the lower line of the bullish trend channel I have drawn. There is an outside chance that the overnight low last night at 1198 is this third higher low but I doubt it.

In any case the most obvious upside target now stands at the confluence of the upper channel line and the level at which the rally from 1142 will match the size of the rally from 1062 (blue dash rectangles). That is also the level of the May 2011 top at 1373 (green oval).

I think I am on safe ground when I assert that investor sentiment is quite negative. The unrelenting European debt crisis is all people are thinking about and all the markets are focusing upon. Of course, things can always get much worse as we learned in 2008. However, I think that was a very unusual situation and one not likely to be repeated.

What interests me right now is the fact that the ES is well above its October low even as doomsayers are predicting the end of the Euro-currency and a worldwide banking crisis. Moreover, even as the US and European markets are holding well above their September-October lows the Euro-currency itself is below its corresponding low made on October 4. I have a strong suspicion that this means that speculators are expecting the ECB (European Central Bank) to provide ample liquidity to the banking system through the "back door" even as it stands at the front door and denies that it will do any quantitative easing. If it does provide such "back door" liquidity the Euro will continue its decline but European stock markets should recover. This would be a bullish development for the US stock market.

Guesstimates on December 15, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1212-1230. The trend is upward and a rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has dropped below its October 4 low. Next support is at 1.2820. .

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on December 14, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1206-1227. The trend is upward and a rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has dropped below its October 4 low. Next support is at 1.2820. .

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is now at 1610.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on December 13, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1231-1249. The trend is upward and a rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I suspect that the trend in the Euro is turning upward. A close above 1.3549, last week's high, would convince me of this. In the meantime I am thinking in terms of an upside target of 140.50.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on December 12, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1234-1252. The trend is upward and a rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I suspect that the trend in the Euro is turning upward. A close above 1.3549, last week's high, would convince me of this. In the meantime I am thinking in terms of an upside target of 140.50.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.