Guesstimates on October 7, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market is now headed for 1250. Today's day session range estimate is 1155-1175.

QQQ: Now headed for 59.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is approaching support in the 1.30-1.31 range. Resistance above the market stands at 1.3550. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance at 1670. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00.

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is underway. Support is at 345.

Update

A little while ago the e-minis hit 1156, the repetition target I cited for the market in my last post.

Since that post was written I have changed my mind about the extent of this rally. I now think the market is headed for 1250 before the bear market resumes. Why?

First of all, on my chart page you can see that the 5 and 10 day oscillators of the advancing issues numbers exhibited bullish divergences at the low a couple of days ago. That low at 1068 was clearly a shakeout low below the August 9 low of 1071, and the subsequent rally has been a classic lock-out rally, one with relatively small reactions which drives relentlessly higher.

Second, I think there is quite a lot of short term bearish sentiment among traders - not enough to end a bear market but sufficient to trigger a substantial bear market rally.

So I think the market is headed back to the top of its August-September trading range and will probably stage a false upside breakout near the end of this rally. After the rally is complete I expect the ES to resume its drop to 950.

Guesstimates on October 6, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market is now headed for 1156 or so. Today's day session range estimate is 1131-1161.

QQQ: Now headed for 59.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is approaching support in the 1.30-1.31 range. Resistance above the market stands at 1.3550. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

November Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance at 1670. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00.

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is underway. Support is at 345.

another rally - then down

Here is a daily bar chart of the December e-minis. As everyone knows, the market has been making it maximally difficult to back one's views, whether bullish or bearish, because it has been putting in big, fast, but brief rallies and breaks for the past two months as you can see on the chart.

As you know I am longer term bearish and expect to see the ES visibly below 1000 by the end of next year's first quarter. In the meantime the situation in Europe dominates all calculations, and since it seems to change every few days I expect the market's erratic behavior to continue for the foreseeable future.

Yesterday's low at 1068 looks like a shakeout low below the August 9 low of 1071.50. The last rally was 88 points and carried from the September 23 low at 1102 to the September 27 high at 1190. A rally of this size from yesterday's low would end at 1156 (blue dash rectangles) and this is what I am expecting now.

However, this rally is only an interruption of a longer term downtrend. The first leg down in this bear market carried the ES down 290 points basis the September contract. A similar drop from the 1223.75 top on August 31 in the December contract would carry the ES down to 933 (purple dash rectangles)

Guesstimates on October 5, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Yesterday's late rally turned the short term trend upward and the market is now headed for 1156 or so. Today's day session range estimate is 1111-1141.

QQQ: Now headed below 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is approaching support in the 1.30-1.31 range. Resistance above the market stands at 1.3550. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

November Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance at 1670. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00.

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is underway. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on October 4, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1055-1095. The ES traded at its August low of 1071 this morning, but I don't think the drop is over yet. Next support is at the August 2010 low of 1037.

QQQ: Now headed below 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is approaching support in the 1.30-1.31 range. Resistance above the market stands at 1.3550. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

November Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance at 1670. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00.

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is underway. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on October 3, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1100-1128. I think the ES is headed below its August low at 1071.

QQQ: Now headed below 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 1.3700. The euro is now headed for its next support level in the 1.30-1.31 range.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

November Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance at 1670. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00.

Google: I think much bigger drop than I expected is underway. Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.