Guesstimates on September 9, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate in the December '11 contract is 1172-1192. The ES is now headed for 1240. If the market drops below 1164 first I will give up on that target and conclude that it is headed for 1100 and lower.

QQQ: Now headed below 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is near its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed down at least to 1.3500 and more probably to 1.2000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

October Crude: Resistance above the market is at 92 and the next step down should take it to 60. I think this is a bear market in crude which is likely to continue down into the 50-60 range.

GLD – December Gold: Gold s headed for 2060.

SLV - December Silver: A move to 50.00 and higher is underway.

Google: I think much bigger drop than I expected is underway. Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on September 8, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1186-1206. The ES is now headed for 1240. Once that level is reached I think the market will begin a moveto 1100 and lower.

QQQ: Now headed below 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is near its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed down at least to 1.3500 and more probably to 1.2000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

October Crude: Resistance above the market is at 92 and the next step down should take it to 60. I think this is a bear market in crude which is likely to continue down into the 50-60 range.

GLD – December Gold: Gold s headed for 2060.

SLV - December Silver: A move to 50.00 and higher is underway.

Google: I think much bigger drop than I expected is underway. Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.

dollar crunch ahead

Here is a 100 pip box, one box reversal chart for the Euro currency against the dollar. As you can see the Euro has been trading sideways in an unusually narrow range for the past 4 months. Yesterday New York closed below 1.4050 after trading as low as 1.3975. I think a downside breakout from this narrow range is underway - a drop to 1.3900 would confirm this view. A point and figure count across this trading range projects downside potential to 1.2000.

What's going on here? The US dollar is a safe haven currency as are US treasury securities. The demand for dollar liquidity is going up because of the well-publicized problems of the European banks who hold large amounts of the sovereign debt of Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy on their books. As this process continues the European central bank and the US Federal Reserve are standing on the sidelines watching the show. They are NOT providing the extra liquidity the market is demanding. Unless and until they do the prices of other assets, predominantly equities, will fall to compensate. Worse, the European and the US economies will contract as a consequence of a liquidity crunch that will be first cousin to the one seen in 2008.

So a downside breakout by the Euro is telling us that world stock market's are in trouble and will head lower. Only a dramatic change in policy by the ECB and the Fed can change this prognosis. I might add that, after a delay, commodity prices, especially gold and oil, will feel the effects of this deflationary wind by going much lower.

Look out below!

Guesstimates on September 7, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1154-1182. The ES is headed for 1100 or lower.

QQQ: Now headed below 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is near its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: In New York yesterday the Euro closed below 1.4050. I think this means that the market is headed down at least to 1.3500 and more probably to 1.2000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

October Crude: Resistance above the market is at 92 and the next step down should take it to 60. I think this is a bear market in crude which is likely to continue down into the 50-60 range.

GLD – December Gold: Gold s headed for 2060.

SLV - December Silver: A move to 50.00 and higher is underway.

Google: I think much bigger drop than I expected is underway. Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on September 6, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1120-1150. The ES is headed for 1100 or lower.

QQQ: Now headed below 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is near its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has traded sideways in a narrow range for several weeks and now is showing signs of dropping below this range. A New York close below 1.4050 would convince me that the market is headed for 1.35 and possibly lower.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

October Crude: Resistance above the market is at 92 and the next step down should take it to 60. I think this is a bear market in crude which is likely to continue down into the 50-60 range.

GLD – December Gold: Gold has rallied well above the 1820-40 resistance zone. I now think the market is headed for 2060.

SLV - December Silver: A move to 50.00 and higher is underway.

Google: I think much bigger drop than I expected is underway. Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on September 2, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1171-1192. The ES has completed its top building process and is now headed for 1100 or lower.

QQQ: Now headed below 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is near its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has traded sideways in a narrow range for several weeks and now is showing signs of dropping below this range. A New York close below 1.4050 would convince me that the market is headed for 1.35 and possibly lower. Meantime I will stick with my 1.53 upside target.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

September Crude: Resistance above the market is at 92 and the next step down should take it to 60. I think this is a bear market in crude which is likely to continue down into the 50-60 range.

GLD – December Gold: Gold has rallied well above the 1820-40 resistance zone. I now think the market is headed for 2060.

SLV - September Silver: A move to 50.00 and higher is underway.

Google: I think much bigger drop than I expected is underway. Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on September 1, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1205-1225. The ES has traded well into the 1220-40 target zone and is in the process of building a top. The next big move from current levels will be down to 1100 or lower.

QQQ: Support is 50.00 and upside target is now 58.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is near its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has traded sideways in a narrow range for several weeks and now is showing signs of dropping below this range. A New York close below 1.4050 would convince me that the market is headed for 1.35 and possibly lower. Meantime I will stick with my 1.53 upside target.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

September Crude: Resistance above the market is at 92 and the next step down should take it to 60. I think this is a bear market in crude which is likely to continue down into the 50-60 range.

GLD – December Gold: Gold is in the midst of a reaction within an ongoing bull market . Downside target is 1575. Resistance above the market is in the 1820-1840 zone.

SLV - September Silver: Support in silver is at 35.00. From there a move to 50.00 and higher should begin.

Google: I think much bigger drop than I expected is underway. Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.